The WEEK: Takového kandidáta jako Trump jsme ještě neměli! Bude prezidentem! Jeho předpovědi vychází od roku 1984


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Profesor Allan Lichtman vytvořil složitý systém, který úspěšně předpovídá vítěze prezidentských voleb už 32 let! A není sebemenší důvod, aby to tentokrát dopadlo jinak. Jeho predikce sestává ze 13 různých faktorů, a pro Trumpa jich je hned 6! Hillary bezpečně poráží i v tom, co všichni vidí – a to je charisma.

Původní článek

One history professor at American University has developed a presidential prediction system that has correctly forecasted the last eight presidential election winners. And this year, Professor Allan Lichtman said all signs are pointing to a Donald Trump victory.

Lichtman’s system, which he outlined in his book Predicting the Next President: The Keys to the White House 2016, identifies the predicting factors of an election as: party mandate, incumbency, whether there’s a „serious contest for the incumbent party nomination,“ the short-term and long-term economies, the strength of any third-party candidates, social unrest, scandal, foreign and military successes and failures, policy changes, and the charisma of both the incumbent and the challenger. Polls aren’t taken into consideration, except to rate the strength of a third-party candidate.

Lichtman said Trump is winning six of the 13 keys, including party mandate, as the Republicans swept the midterm elections. He also pointed to Clinton’s lack of charisma. „Very, very narrowly, the keys point to a Trump victory,“ Lichtman told The Independent. „But I would say, more to the point, they point to a generic Republican victory, because I believe that given the unprecedented nature of the Trump candidacy and Trump himself, he could defy all odds and lose even though the verdict of history is in his favor.“

Lichtman also noted that Trump has made this election the „most difficult election to assess since 1984,“ and that America has really never had a candidate quite like Trump before. „This would also suggest … the possibility this election could go either way,“ Lichtman said. „Nobody should be complacent. No matter who you’re for, you gotta get out and vote.“

You can read the full explanation of Lichtman’s prediction system over at The Independent. Becca Stanek

www.theweek.com

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